The US election
Summary: in what is the most consequential presidential election
in modern US history will it matter to the Middle East who emerges the
winner?
On the surface it should be of great importance to the region whether
it is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris who sits in the Oval Office come 20
January 2025.
Trump, it is widely presumed, is the president Benjamin Netanyahu
would see as his best bet to continue his war of attrition in Lebanon
and the genocide in Gaza. But the unpredictability and indeed the
increasingly disturbed rants and ramblings of the former president
Netanyahu once called Israel’s best friend
may give the prime minister some pause for thought. (Their relationship
has been strained since the 2020 election and his congratulatory call
to Joe Biden which enraged Trump though in recent months Netanyahu has
been at pains to patch matters up.)
Certainly, however, Netanyahu will be less than happy at the thought
of a Harris presidency. As Americans go to the polls today the vice
president is working hard to woo the Arab-American voters she needs,
most critically in the swing state of Michigan. On Sunday at a rally in the state she acknowledged the extent of human suffering in Lebanon and Gaza:
It is devastating and as president I will do everything in my
power to end the war in Gaza, to bring the hostages home, end the
suffering in Gaza, ensure Israel is secure and ensure the Palestinian
people can realise their right to dignity, freedom, security and
self-determination.
The call for Palestinian self-determination drew thunderous applause
and with polls indicating that undecided voters are shifting to Harris a
win in Michigan combined with wins in two other swing states Wisconsin
and Pennsylvania would in an extremely tight election give her a total
of 44 electoral college votes, enough to carry her across the line and secure the presidency.
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